Budgam is all set for a crucial by-election tomorrow — a contest viewed as a litmus test for the ruling National Conference (NC) and its popularity among the electorate after last year’s Assembly polls.
The bypoll was necessitated after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, who had won both the Budgam and Ganderbal seats in last year’s Assembly elections, vacated Budgam, choosing to retain Ganderbal. Omar had won Budgam with 35,804 votes, defeating the PDP’s Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, who secured 17,445 votes.
Though the campaign began on a subdued note, the past three days witnessed heightened political activity, with top J&K leaders — including Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti, and Leader of the Opposition and senior BJP leader Sunil Sharma — canvassing for their respective candidates.
A total of 17 candidates are in the fray, including seven independents, but the contest is expected to be a direct face-off between the NC’s Aga Syed Mahmood and the PDP’s Aga Muntazir. Other prominent candidates include the BJP’s Aga Syed Mohsin, Awami Ittehad Party’s Nazir Ahmad Khan, Aam Aadmi Party’s Deeba Khan, and independent candidate Muntazir Mohiuddin.
During the campaign, the NC and PDP traded sharp barbs, blaming each other for the region’s political and administrative “disempowerment.” While the NC accused the PDP of being responsible for the downfall of J&K from a state to a union Territory and the abrogation of Article 370, the PDP in turn alleged that the NC had “surrendered” to the BJP after securing a massive mandate last year.
Adding intrigue to the contest is the absence of NC Member of Parliament Aga Ruhullah, who chose not to campaign for his party’s candidate despite being a prominent leader from Budgam.
Ruhullah, since 2019, has emerged as a strong voice against the revocation of Article 370 and the downgrading of
J&K into a union Territory. Mehdi has been criticising the Omar Abdullah government for its failure to stand up to the BJP on constitutional and reservation issues. In last year’s Assembly polls, Ruhullah had vigorously campaigned for Omar in Budgam.
Political analyst and former Kashmir University professor Noor A. Baba said the outcome of the Budgam by-election is difficult to predict, though under normal circumstances it could have been an advantage for the NC.
“The perception of the NC’s performance during the past year does not seem very impressive, and the absence of Ruhullah’s support could also be a significant factor,” Baba observed.
He added that the bypoll is effectively an open contest, with the result carrying major political implications.
“If the NC wins this seat, Omar Abdullah will be vindicated — he can claim to have retained public trust. But if the party loses, it will raise more questions about his leadership and performance,” Baba said.
Budgam has always been a stronghold of the NC since its electoral history. Barring 1972, NC candidates have won the seat in 1957, 1962, 1967, 1977, 1983, 1987, 1996, 2002, 2008, 2014 and 2024.
According to official data, 1,26,025 voters are eligible to cast their votes, including 63,803 males, 62,222 females, 1,241 migrant voters, and 251 service electors. There are 797 voters above the age of 85. The Election Commission has set up 173 polling stations, all designated as critical.
In last year’s Assembly elections, Budgam recorded a voter turnout of 52.27 percent.
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