By Rahi Bhide

India’s steadfast stance on continuing crude oil imports from Russia has once again placed it at odds with the United States. In response, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a punitive 25% tariff on Indian exports. While the tariff implementation has been deferred until the 7th of the month, the decision is a stark reminder of Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy and its implications for global trade dynamics.

Ironically, this move comes despite Trump's previous declarations of camaraderie with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even as he claims to value India as a key partner, Trump has extended a supportive hand to Pakistan, a nation widely regarded as a breeding ground for terrorism. By doing so, he has demonstrated what can best be described as “friendship with one, affection with another.”

Since assuming office, Trump has been an active player on the global trade stage under the banner of his “America First”doctrine. While intended to prioritize American interests, the policy has often backfired—hurting the U.S. economy and straining long-standing alliances. His decisions, often driven by a mixture of economic anxiety and geopolitical fear particularly regarding Russia, China, and India have led to trade wars and erratic diplomacy.

India, frequently labelled by Trump as the world’s most protectionist economy, has borne the brunt of these measures. Whether it was the purchase of S-400 missile systems from Russia or ongoing oil imports, Washington has responded with threats of sanctions and tariffs. Despite this, India has shown restraint and resolve, maintaining its strategic autonomy in foreign policy.

Yet contradictions in U.S. policy abound. While India faces penalties for dealing with Russia, Pakistan is rewardedwith energy cooperation agreements. Such duality undermines the credibility of America’s commitment to democratic partners and raises serious concerns about the motivations behind its foreign engagements.

The economic fallout for India could be significant. A 25% tariff would:

• Severely impact key export sectors such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, electronics, textiles, and gems and jewellery.

• Make Indian goods more expensive and less competitive in the U.S. market.

• Cause strain on the Indian rupee, reduce export revenues, and lower GDP growth by an estimated 0.19% to 0.9%.

• Result in higher prices for American consumers by as much as 1.5% thus affecting U.S. inflation and spending patterns.

The tariff threat has already spooked the markets, reflecting the broader uncertainty surrounding Indo-U.S. trade ties. The response from Indian exporters and policymakers must now be strategic rather than reactive. Much like China, India will need to diversify its export base and reduce dependence on volatile partners. The Free Trade Agreement with the United Kingdom is a step in the right direction.

Furthermore, the justification given for penalizing India its energy trade with Russia may not be the full story. Some analysts believe the real concern lies in the growing influence of BRICS nations and their ambition to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar by creating an alternative global currency. Trump's tariffs, therefore, may be as much about safeguarding financial hegemony as they are about energy ethics.

Even within the United States, industrial groups and economists have voiced their apprehension. Far from boosting domestic industries, they argue, Trump’s tariff policies could damage American competitiveness and alienate key allies. But Trump’s style of leadership autocratic and resistant to counsel leaves little room for diplomacy.

The larger question remains: Can a country that punishes a long-time partner while cozying up to a known adversary be considered a reliable ally? Trump’s overtures to Pakistan, juxtaposed against his punitive measures toward India, signal a potential realignment of U.S. strategic interests. His decision to aid Pakistan in energy exploration, even as India faces tariffs for similar pursuits with Russia, reflects a troubling inconsistency.

In sum, what we are witnessing is not merely a disagreement over tariffs or oil imports it is a test of diplomatic trust. India must recalibrate its global strategy in the wake of this unpredictability. As the global power balance shifts, the need for resilient, multipolar alliances becomes ever more critical.

Trump’s diplomacy, characterized by unpredictability and double standards, might soon be remembered not for forging new alliances, but for fraying the old.

000

Washington / New Delhi: US President Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on all goods imported from India, effective August 7. However, there is still no clarity regarding the imposition of an additional penalty, as there is no mention of such a fine in the official executive order issued by the Trump administration, according to sources.

The penalty, believed to be linked to India’s continued imports of crude oil and military equipment from Russia, has not been clearly detailed. Trump had earlier indicated that an additional fine would be imposed, but the official order only mentions the tariff hike and omits any reference to penalties.

Sources familiar with the matter said, “There is confusion over this issue because the executive order makes no mention of any penalty.” The tariff and the potential penalty are widely seen as pressure tactics aimed at compelling India to align with US demands on global geopolitical matters, particularly in relation to Russia.

Recently, the US has signed favorable trade deals with major partners like Japan, the UK, and the European Union. India, however, has become the first country to be penalized for continuing imports from Russia. Previously, Trump had imposed steep tariffs on China as well, but never levied a penalty, even though China remains the largest importer of Russian oil.

Before the Russia-Ukraine war, India’s crude oil imports from Russia accounted for just 0.2% of its total oil imports. That figure has now surged to 35–40%, making India the second-largest buyer of Russian oil after China.

Trump has repeatedly criticized India for its longstanding defense and energy trade with Russia. While the global community has urged Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine, India has significantly increased its imports of discounted Russian oil since the conflict began in February 2022. This shift in trade is reportedly a major concern for Washington.

000

By Rahi Bhide

Since his election as the President of the United States, the world has been aware of Donald Trump's arrogant attitude and authoritarian rule. There was a big movement in the United States against Trump, who made decisions with the arrogance of saying, 'Only I can do good for America.' Countries like Canada and Mexico forced Trump to withdraw. In two months, Trump had to backtrack on his decisions many times. Trump himself dragged this time out.

How Donald Trump, who became president again after four years, understood only now that America's trade with the countries of the world is unbalanced, and America is suffering a huge loss due to this, is the subject of research. Trump, who announced a tax policy as it was, had to withdraw twice in two months. On April 2, just seven days after imposing tariffs on about a hundred countries, he suspended this decision for 90 days. In the past months, tariffs were imposed on Canada and Mexico and then suspended for a month, but Trump has given a big blow to China by imposing a 125 percent tariff. It is interesting to know why Trump withdrew the tariff in seven days, what will be the impact of the US decision on India and how the tariff will be re-imposed after 90 days. Trump has given a 90-day moratorium on the reciprocal tariff imposed on more than 75 countries. A 10 percent baseline tariff was imposed on these countries. These 75 countries include India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Taiwan, and Vietnam; however, Trump has excluded China from this decision. Trump has said that 75 countries have started discussions with the US Department of Commerce, Treasury, and the US Trade Representative on issues such as trade and currency manipulation. Many countries have cooperated on the tariff. These countries have not retaliated. I have given these countries a 90-day reprieve. During this period, only a 10 percent tariff will be imposed on them. Shortly after Trump's announcement, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said that this ban was part of our strategy from the beginning. We have tried to send a message to other countries that 'you don't retaliate, you will be rewarded.' That is, after announcing the tariffs, Trump wanted to see how many countries support his decision and how many oppose it. Trump wants to guess which countries will go with China and which countries will come with him. This is a ploy to divide the world into two groups.

Trump's 'tax as you please' policy was also affecting his close associates. Tesla chief Elon Musk lost millions of rupees. For many days, American industrialists, CEOs and Republican party leaders had been asking Trump to stop the tariffs. They feared that Trump could impose tariffs on all countries in the world and cause a recession in the United States. It could turn into a global recession. Trump decided to impose a 90-day ban on the advice of American hedge fund manager and Trump supporter Bill Ackman. Ackman had recently said that Trump's imposition of tariffs could trigger an economic nuclear war in the world. To avoid this, he was under pressure to stop the price hike. Ackman wrote in the post that this policy does not seem to be working. He warned that if the impact of the tariffs is not stopped immediately, small businesses will go bankrupt. Jamie Dimon, CEO of American financial firm JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in an interview with Fox News that a recession is almost certain due to the economic turmoil over the tariffs. Jamie's statement is being linked to Trump's decision. However, White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt said that the step to withdraw was part of Trump's larger strategy. Such a strategy has led to the collapse of US and global markets, causing millions of investors to flee their countries, raising questions about what happened and who is responsible for it. Trump's initial decision to suspend tariffs for 90 days is a no-brainer. There is no logic behind this. He talks to his billionaire friends, not economists and experts. After Trump announced tariffs on about a hundred countries, protests began around the world. Protests were held in more than twelve hundred cities in fifty states of the United States. Trump's tariffs caused the stock markets of the world, including the United States, India, and Japan, to fall by $10 trillion. US Treasury bond prices fell and interest rates rose. On April 8, the US stock market's Nasdaq fell another five percent. This shook the economies of many countries, including the United States. Suddenly, American bonds started selling. Crude oil prices also fell sharply. Americans feared that the increase in tariffs would make goods in the country more expensive. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon called it an "economic crisis." Large companies like Walmart and Tesla said that the tariffs would increase their prices, make goods more expensive, and have a direct impact on consumers. Walmart CEO Doug McMillan said product prices could rise by 15 to 20 percent. Wall Street banks had warned that the tariffs would lead to inflation, rising unemployment and a recession in the United States.

Trump imposed 125 percent tariffs on China. China also imposed 84 percent tariffs on the US. The European Union also approved new tariffs on the US. Vietnam asked the US for 45 days and Bangladesh for three months. Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that there is a threat to American jobs. Many of Trump's close advisors had advised stopping the tariff war. Many leaders of Trump's Republican Party were also against the tariffs. Trump's tariff hike had increased the probability of a recession from 40 to 60 percent. GDP is expected to fall by eight percent. The salaries of working people in the US could fall by up to seven percent. At the same time, a middle-class family could lose $58,000, or Rs 50 lakh. The University of Michigan's consumer index is at its lowest level in 3 years. This is used to estimate spending and investment. Now the biggest impact of Trump's withdrawal of tariffs has been seen on the US economy. On April 9, the US market closed at 12 percent. The US Nasdaq posted its biggest gain since 2001, while the Dow Jones posted its biggest gain since March 2020. Nearly 30 billion shares were traded in the US capital market, making it the biggest trading day in the history of Wall Street. Apart from this, Asian markets also saw a rise of more than nine percent. Perhaps due to late wisdom, America started to recover.

000

Why does American President Donald Trump wake up every morning and shock the world? Trump, who has been making new announcements about tariffs every day since becoming president again, did something on Wednesday that made people say, "Mr. President Enough Now." In fact, after announcing the tariffs, Trump declared April 2, 2025 as the day of liberation for America, on April 9, the announcement of the same tariffs was postponed for 90 days (except for China). Considering Trump's rhetoric on tariffs so far, the decision to postpone it for 90 days proved to be a major reversal and the stock market also saw a jump after it. However, Trump announced to impose 125% tariff on China, while allowing the rest of the world to be exempted from tariffs. Due to which uncertainty remains in the market.

As Trump announced his new move on his Truth social media account, Wall Street and markets across Asia showed strength. Trump posted, "I have agreed to suspend the tariffs for 90 days. The reason for this decision is to come forward for trade talks with more than 75 countries and avoid retaliation."

After Trump's decision to withdraw the tariffs, the major index of the American stock market S&P 500 registered an increase of 9.5%. According to the S&P, Wednesday was the market's third best day since 1940. The Dow Jones also jumped nearly 3,000 points after Trump's decision. This helped offset some of the losses in the market after the tariff announcements. Although most of the countries of the world breathed a sigh of relief from the decision to withdraw the tariffs, Trump made it clear that the tariffs on China will continue. It will only increase the pressure.

Let's know why the Trump administration did not let China live?

Trump's decision to isolate China through tariffs isn't just economic—it's deeply personal and strategic. "They were very insulting. They didn't respond. They retaliated," Trump said after China announced new tariffs of 84% on American goods. Trump has long viewed China as the main villain on the economic front. He has accused Beijing of dumping cheap goods, manipulating currency markets and stealing American intellectual property. He has also repeatedly claimed that Chinese leaders do not understand how to negotiate with them. Talks between Washington and Beijing have stalled for months. Trump said in his statement, "China wants to do a deal. But they don't know how to do it."

Donald Trump's allies say the 125% tariff is aimed at persuading Beijing to negotiate. But it also aims to protect American manufacturing. The Trump administration argues that it wants to avoid "flooding the world with junk (Chinese goods)". According to White House press secretary Carolyn Levitt, China is 'being aggressive' while the rest of the world is 'closer to us.' He said to reporters, "We are trying to show that the rest of the world will come to China, but we are actually seeing the opposite."

Why did the tariff hold decision gain importance?

Donald Trump has taken his confrontation with China to a new level in the global trade war by suddenly deciding to roll back tariffs. However, he has also expressed his willingness to use the remaining economic shocks as a negotiating tool. Trump is trying to isolate Beijing by exempting most countries from tariffs at least temporarily. Their purpose is also to unite colleagues. On the other hand, the escalation of tensions with China has taken the already brutal trade war between the world's two largest economies to a new and dangerous turn. Trump has refused to back down on tariffs and said, "Aapko lakshi hona hoga". However, he also mentioned the turmoil in the financial environment. "After the announcement of the tariffs, people were thinking a little out of line, they were getting irritated, they were a little scared," Trump said.
Trump's verdict ka kya matlab hai?

The decision to postpone the tariff for 90 days at least proves that no matter how important the step is, if the economy is playing a bandwagon, Trump will not delay in taking a U-turn. Trump's administration argues that threats of tariffs have drawn global powers to the negotiating table. This includes countries that were once hostile in terms of trade outlook.

White House press secretary Carolyn Levitt said, "The whole world is talking to America, not China, because they need our markets." The decision to stop the tariff was not taken without any motive. Trump acknowledged that he studied the "very complex" US bond market and saw that yields were rising despite falling stocks. It's a warning sign that rattled both investors and the White House. Behind the scenes, his aides insist that it (retaliatory tariffs) is part of Trump's broader strategy.

Treasury Secretary Scott Besant called the decision to withdraw tariffs a deliberate strategy. He said, "This was their strategy from the beginning. Trump pushed China into a bad situation with his steps." However, the President himself refuted this sweeping comment and accepted that he was reconsidering the tariff due to recent market changes. He said, "Abhi Kuch Bhi Khamin Hua Hai."

What will happen in the next 90 days?

The next 90 days after the announcement of tariff withdrawal will prove to be very important for the whole world. In the meantime, the US will strive to bring the negotiation process to a successful conclusion with its trading partners. If any agreement is reached then it will be a good news for the world. But, if the talks behind the scenes fail in the next 90 days, the whole world will be in the grip of recession. Besant affirmed that the US will continue its dialogue with various countries.

However, one of the most important points among these hopeful speculations is that there is no guarantee that Trump will not make any further changes to his current policy. They can surprise the world by announcing anything at any time. Now it is clear. "We can only guarantee that America will negotiate in good faith in a good environment," Besant said, suggesting that talks with Japan, South Korea, India and Vietnam are already underway. But China is walking on a different path, this is not the way it is. Trump is trying to surround Xi Jinping's government. They think that Xi Jinping will be forced to bow under pressure.

China's  stand?

Beijing has signaled further retaliation but so far, its 84% ​​tariff is significantly lower than Trump's. China on Thursday announced an 84% tariff on US goods. China's Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning to the US, saying, "If they (the US) insist on increasing their economic and trade sanctions, China has the willpower and abundant resources to take the necessary countermeasures and fight to the end."

China has also contacted other countries after the tariff increase by Trump. It seems that China is trying to form an alliance to force Washington to back down. However, even after several days of efforts, China seems to be getting partial success in this. Many countries are unwilling to ally with China in a trade war with President Donald Trump.